Record breaking temperatures – heatwaves are getting hotter and can be expected earlier
This summer has started with unprecedented heatwaves and record high temperatures in many places even before the summer solstice, giving a sign of what we can expect and the challenges it may pose for our health. Heatwaves are deadly, but the health impacts can often be prevented with the right measures. We talked to our experts to learn more.
Miriam Stackpole Dahl, CICERO
Sonja Lynn Myhre, NIPH
The latest IPCC report states with high confidence that the increase in heat extremes we see today is due to human contributions.
“With global warming, we will have more frequent and intense heatwaves. Temperature records are broken every year now, so this is something we are experiencing already”, said Professor Jana Sillmann, at CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo and University of Hamburg in Germany. Sillmann is IPCC Lead Author and an expert on climate extremes such as heatwaves.
“Since around 2010 we have seen an increase in heat episodes in our observed records, but also reflected in the increased media coverage of heat waves and their severe impacts. Without human induced climate change we would not have so many and so hot heatwaves”, Sillmann said.
Jana Sillmann is a climate scientist working at the University of Hamburg and at CICERO.
Roop K. Singh is a climate risk advisor for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.
Francesca de’Donato is an epidemiologist working for the Lazio Regional Health Service in Rome.
Hotter and earlier heatwaves
The last few months have seen heat records being broken in many parts of the world, as diverse as in Northern Norway, Japan, India, Pakistan and Italy.
According to the UN, the early heat waves this season is a harbinger of what we can expect in the future and offer a clear warning of global warming’s danger to human health.
“Until now, we have had heatwaves mostly in the summer season, but with global warming temperatures increase throughout the year and we are then more likely to have heat waves also in other seasons than in summer”, Sillmann explained.
In several European countries, the month of May went on record as the hottest May and the fifth warmest May globally. Similarly, according to an article in the Guardian, more than 200 monthly temperature records were broken in French cities and countries including Portugal, Spain, and Germany.
This trend continued in June with national heat records set in Switzerland, Poland and the Czech Republic. For example, Cottbus, Germany registered 39.2°C, the hottest day ever recorded since record keeping started in 1888. San Sebastián, Spain also recorded the hottest June day at 39.0°C. And Biarritz France, also recorded its hottest day on June 18th at 42.9°C.
“We experience heatwaves that are hotter than they used to be. A heatwave that used to have peak temperatures of 30 degrees at a particular place, might be 32 degrees or more in a warming climate. This means that we will exceed critical thresholds for health risks more often. With every degree the planet is getting warmer, the heatwaves will get more intense and get too hot for many people to handle”, said Sillmann.
The heatwaves are getting hotter than they used to be.
Heat plans in Italy – a focus on those most at risk
Italy is one of the countries that have been hard hit by heatwaves since the beginning of summer, with several heatwaves already behind us when we enter into July. We talk to Dr. Francesca de’Donato at the Department of Epidemiology at the Lazio Regional Health Service (ASL ROMA1) in Rome on a day where the temperature is 38 degrees Celsius outside and the current heatwave has been ongoing for a week already.
“Temperatures have been above average for most months this year and we have already had two heatwaves. Combined with little rain, we now have a state of emergency for drought in several parts of Italy, meaning a higher risk of wildfires as well. On the hottest day in Rome we had several localized fires, said de’Donato who is studying the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change. She is also part of EXHAUSTION, ENBEL and the ENGAGE projects among others. She is particularly concerned about the groups that are most vulnerable to the heat.
“During a heatwave the elderly, the chronically ill, those with heart and lung disease as well as people with mental illness are most severely affected. Many don’t realise it is so hot, or that the heat can be dangerous and they don’t take preventive measures”, she said.
To manage the heat challenge, Italy has a national heat adaptation plan and each region has public heat health plans. De’Donato manages the Italian national Heat Health Warning System on behalf of the Ministry of Health and Civil Protection and contributes to the Italian and Lazio regional heat plans.
Italy is one of the countries that formally identify vulnerable subgroups and individuals to better prepare, prevent and monitor during a heatwave. In the Lazio region the elderly at risk are identified considering administrative and health registries and the information is shared with health services and their general practitioners who carry out active surveillance of those most at risk when a warning is issued, de’Donato explains. The risk level is even graded so that for example a person of 75 years of age with heart disease living alone is flagged as more at risk than a person of the same age without a chronic condition.
“We have had heat health plans and warnings for about ten years now and the awareness among people of what they can do to protect themselves from the heat has improved. And we have seen a reduction of heat -related mortality when warnings are issued”, says de’Donato.
The increased awareness of the heat risk to health among susceptible groups means that pregnant women, children and workers are also now on the radar during heat waves. Some regions have even restricted outdoor work in certain sectors such as agriculture in the hottest hours of the day (between 1300hrs and 1600hrs) during the summer.
Take care of the people around us when it is hot
So what are the most important preventive and protective actions you can do this summer to stay healthy during heat events? We asked Roop K. Singh, Climate Risk Advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.
“We all live in communities. It's essential that we take care of the people around us. Checking in on your elderly parents, grandparents or neighbors can be life-saving during a heatwave”, said Singh.
You can:
Give them a call and ask them how they are spending the day
Remind them to avoid outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day
Remind them to drink lots of water.
Ask them if they have a way to cool off inside their home or if they'd like help getting to a cool place for the day.
Graphic made for Heat Action Day by IFRC, Climate Centre and Global Disaster Preparedness Center.
What are the key messages from the experts to policy makers?
Early warning, prevention and planning
“Heatwaves are deadly disasters that are becoming more frequent and intense, virtually everywhere, due to climate change. But, we can often forecast them in advance and prevent unnecessary health impacts”, said Singh with a clear message on heat and health for policy:
Put in place Heat Action Plans that include early warning and early action for heatwaves, seasonal planning for hot season(s), and long-term planning for increasing temperatures.
Better coordination and targeted prevention
“Good coordination and collaboration between response services, including health services, NGOs, social services and emergency and civil response services is key. And the response needs to be targeted to the different vulnerable groups, said de’Donato.
Adaptation plans, climate resilient cities
“We are racing against time, with climate change projected to push the limits of the human capacity to work and even survivability, in some places, due to hotter temperatures. We need adaptation plans in place around the world, and quickly. At the same time, urbanization is the biggest trend of the 21st century, as more and more people move to cities, we need to make sure they are built in ways that reduce the urban heat island effect, instead of compounding it”, said Singh.
More research and awareness of the heat risk
To underpin this, according to Singh, we need more research to understand when the heat becomes dangerous and what interventions are effective in places where the research doesn't exist including in Africa, Asia, and South America.
“We also need to improve people's perceptions of heat risk. In places with a temperate climate, people tend to welcome heat with open arms not realizing that it can be deadly. And in hot climates, people tend to think they are "used to" hot temperatures. With climate change, both will have to adapt their behaviors to avoid heat impacts,” she said.
Mitigation is key, adaptation is needed
“We need to reduce emissions to slow down global warming. If we don’t mitigate, it is unavoidable that we will get more hot and deadly heatwaves. At the same time, we need to adapt and prepare for the heatwaves that will come. We need to think about heat when we build new schools, office buildings and houses. We need to make sure to have green and blue spaces in our cities”, said Sillmann.